Analyzing the Midterm Elections
November 17, 2025
The Republican Party’s leadership claimed victory on Wednesday, November 5th, a day after the GOP made major gains in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. As of the 5th, Republicans had made a net gain of 7 Senate seats and 14 House seats. Both victories were among the largest electoral swings in history. The new Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell (R – KY), declared, “this gridlock and dysfunction can be ended.” With control of the Senate’s committees, the Republicans will have control over legislative priorities.
The Republican Senate leadership has already outlined five major legislation priorities. The first objective, and likely the easiest to accomplish, is approval and commencement of the Keystone XL pipeline. Many Congressional Democrats also support the pipeline, a rare issue with broad bipartisan support. On the other hand, Republicans will likely enjoy President Obama’s support on trade agreements with Pacific Rim nations, a topic generally touchy for Congressional Democrats. The Republicans are also seeking a broad overhaul of the tax code, another issue that has a good deal of Democratic support. However, the Obama administration’s plan for a tax code overhaul differs greatly from the Republicans’. And the Republicans are not likely to have broad enough bipartisan support to override a presidential veto, should President Obama disapprove of their proposal.
Although there may be successful negotiations in the three aforementioned fields, the Republicans have two final legislative goals that are unlikely to be accomplished. The GOP’s budget plans, featuring increased military spending and reduced taxes, will find little Democratic support, least from President Obama. Finally, Senate Republicans, in tandem with House Republicans, will attempt to dismantle portions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Although repealing the ACA will be impossible, due to President Obama’s veto power, the Republicans will attempt to make amendments to the law.
The Republicans’ legislative priorities are, therefore, not completely unreasonable. The Keystone XL pipeline will probably move forward; new trade agreements with Asian and South American nations are imminent. The question, however, is whether or not the Republican majority can capitalize on accomplishable goals, or whether they will get bogged down battling the administration over the ACA and the budget.
Republican’s have more to celebrate than taking back Congress, they also made many gains at the state level. Republican incumbent governors won in 18 states, while Republican challengers won the governorships of Illinois, Arkansas, Maryland, and Massachusetts. However, despite electing republicans in droves, voters also passed many of the progressive referendums on their ballots. In Oregon, Alaska, and Washington D.C. voters approved ballot measures legalizing marijuana. Meanwhile, in Colorado and North Dakota voters rejected measures that would have lead to more restrictive abortion laws. And in South Dakota, Arkansas, Nebraska, and Alaska voters approved a minimum wage increase. Finally, in Washington state, voters approved stricter background checks on potential gun owners.
Although Republicans won many of the seats up for election, progressives can take solace in the fact that many of their initiatives found success at well. This somewhat surprising outcome can be explained by general fatigue with our elected politicians. Voters appear to have been tired of the status quo and thus voted out many of the Democrats in power, but the trend towards progressivism that has been prevalent in this decade transcends voter fatigue. Progressives can add their victories at the midterms to a growing list of progressive issues that have found success recently, including gay marriage and environmental regulation. Republicans in power will have to decide whether to push back against these progressive victories or accept them. Likely, there will be a fight.
Any analysis of the midterm election must take into account the low voter turnout. Voter turnout in this midterm election dropped to a 72-year low, with only 36.4% of the voting population showing up at the polls. Although turnout is historically lower in midterm elections than in presidential election years—turnout was 58.2% in 2012 and 61.6% in 2008—this election had a particularly poor showing; turnout in 2010 was 40.9%. This is an unfortunate truth for Republicans, who would like to claim a broad voter mandate for their agenda after their sweeping victories on election day.
This turnout may be a reflection of a loss of faith in the American political process, or at least a temporary distaste for Washington, but US voter turnout has been lower than many would like for decades. Numerous ideas to change this have been tossed around over the years, including altering the electoral college (which may only affect presidential year turnout), making a voting holiday, facilitating early voting or voting by mail, and even offering incentives to vote. The last idea does not sit well with many Americans, who feel that voting should a right rather than a chore like it is in Australia or other countries with mandatory voting. Regardless of the low voter turnout, the midterm elections proved that the US is ready for change by voting in politicians and supporting progressive causes.
Further Reading:
Election Results
Republican Agenda
Contributions by Alexi Stocker, Sam Houskeeper, and Ben Mandel