Somalia Rising

October 29, 2026

Somalia has long been considered a failed state. While accurate, this reputation, which is bolstered by stories of insurgency and piracy, and by big budget movies like Black Hawk Down and Captain Phillips, does not fully represent the complexities that are found within the country. In the absence of a central authority, power in the country has spread to various groups. Pirates and insurgents have been able to flourish in certain regions, while autonomous governments within Somalia have also formed to varying degrees of success. However, the power dynamics of Somalia are in flux. Renewed engagement with the insurgency have driven them into the hinterland, while one autonomous region is agitating for full independence.

Since 2012, Somalia has ostensibly been ruled by the Federal Government of Somalia, which took control after a decade of rule by various transitional governments. The federal government maintains bilateral relations with several prominent governments, including the United States and China, giving them a much needed form of credibility. In addition, they control the Somali Armed Forces (SAF), which are playing a much larger role in combating insurgency than in the past.

The SAF recently captured Barawe, a coastal town which has been described as the last major base of al-Shabaab, the radical Islamist militant group that once controlled much of the country and, in 2012, pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda. This most recent SAF campaign, called Operation Indian Ocean, was launched this August in an attempt to finish off al-Shabaab, which has been weakening for some time. After the US killed major al-Shabaab leader Moktar Ali Zubeyr in an early September drone strike, the TFG offered a 45-day opportunity for amnesty for moderate members.

Al-Shabaab, which means “The Youth,” has served as an unofficial government in much of Somalia for many years. Much of the group’s income has come from the illegal ivory trade, through which Al-Shabaab has allegedly caused the deaths of thousands of elephants. Contrary to what some believe, al-Shabaab generally opposes Somali piracy and has made efforts to stamp it out in cities where it has ruled.

The fact that al-Shabaab no longer controls any major cities or strong points is cause for hope, but it must be remembered that Kenyan military incursions have, in the past, driven al-Shabaab into the countryside, only to see the group return and recapture major settlements. The SAF advance is somewhat of a different situation because, unlike the Kenyan military, which left after their mission and thereby allowed the militants to return in their wake, the Somali government's presence will be permanent. Even so, it is clear that al-Shabaab must be completely defeated, even outside of the coastal cities, before it will disappear completely.

The country of Somalia has been plagued by various types of instability since its birth in 1960, ranging from piracy to separatist movements pushing for secession. In a somewhat unique circumstance, the state has two semi-autonomous regions that have different relations with the capital of Mogadishu and with one another. The less extreme of the two, the northern Puntland, merely seeks a more federal form of government in which it exerts relative autonomy while still being nominally a part of the country. Since 1998, Puntland has attempted to exist in this way, but has met varying degrees of success. Although officially recognizing the federal government headed by PM Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, it should be noted that this was only done reluctantly and after he had gained power. Piracy is another pressing issue in the region, and although it has been on the decline recently, there are worries that resurgence is imminent as the region is home to many desperate and little-policed refugees.

Puntland’s neighbor, Somaliland, has been attempting to obtain complete autonomy since 1991. The two regions have a large swath of contested land dividing them that has seen a good deal of vicious fighting. Somaliland has its own government institutions and currency and continues to vigorously attempt independence.

While the Somali Federal Government has made strides to regain control over a war-torn and failed state, it is likely impossible for them to regain full control over the country. The autonomous regions have proven to be equally as reliable governing bodies, while the specter of insurgency and piracy continues to loom despite recent victories against each threat. For now, the Somali government must focus on rebuilding the parts of the country not controlled by Somaliland or Puntland. They recently announced a plan to start producing oil and natural gas within six years, which is a good place to begin rebuilding the economy. However, six years is a long time for a government that has only existed for two. Whether the federal government can find success in their rebuilding efforts remains to be seen, but for a country that is considered a failed state, any form of rebuilding is a good start.

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Somalia Rising