The US-China Climate Deal: Shaping Climate Change Regulation
Historical Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Photo Courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.
November 19, 2025
On November 11, in Beijing, US President Barack Obama and China’s President Xi Jinping announced an ambitious agreement on climate change which had been worked on by Chinese and US officials for over nine months. The importance of the agreement is underscored by the fact that the US and China are the world's two largest economies and the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, accounting for 40% of the world's emissions together. As US Secretary of State John Kerry expressed, the active cooperation of both nations on this issue is an encouragement for other countries to likewise set “ambitious emissions reduction targets soon and to overcome traditional divisions.”
On the US side, President Obama announced that by the year 2025, the US would cut emissions by 26 to 28 percent of 2005 levels. The agreement intends for the US to double the pace of greenhouse gas reductions in the period from 2020 to 2025, as compared to the period from 2005 to 2020. On China's side, President Xi pledged for China to reach its peak year of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, if not earlier. Furthermore, China also announced its plans to increase clean energy sources to account for 20 percent of China's energy production by 2030.
In addition to the prospects of influencing global negotiations, the agreement is also important to China's domestic climate change efforts. With China's dangerously high levels of air pollution causing 670,000 deaths per year, the issue has become dire. Tellingly, the Chinese government temporarily placed large transport and industry restrictions from November 1 in Beijing to ensure cleaner skies for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, during which the US-China talks were held. Despite disagreements over human rights issues and the situation in Hong Kong, both Obama and Xi focused on their common interests and agreed on issues such as extending visa terms, developing rules on military encounters, and reducing tariffs on information technology products. Amid these better-than-expected agreements, the climate change agreement stands out in particular because of its ambitiousness and because it marks a change from both nations’ historically negligent attitudes towards international environmental negotiations.
However, it is difficult to determine, as of yet, whether or not (and to what degree) China and the United States intend to honor the agreements laid out by their respective leaders. Success likely rests entirely on President Obama’s ability to follow through; as China’s agreement establishes a peak in 2030, greenhouse gas abatement will not commence for some time, while the United States, on the other hand, pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26 to 28 percent of 2005 levels by 2025. The United States, therefore, must take the lead; if President Obama can successfully implement abatement measures at home, and if his successor chooses to follow through, then the Chinese are much more likely to fully commit to their side of the bargain.
The issue, of course, is political feasibility. President Obama’s agreement with Xi Jinping does not require Congressional approval, but the soon-to-be Republican controlled House and Senate could try to undo any abatement measures President Obama puts in place. Xi Jinping, on the other hand, does not face such difficulties at home; he can act as he pleases, which allows him to sit back and wait and see if the Americans follow through on their promises. But even if the U.S. does not act due to Congressional intransigence, the Chinese are fairly serious about climate policy, with plans to set up a national market for emissions permits, and the stated goal of making Beijing coal-free by 2020.
Yet, even with China’s strong central authority, implementing climate change reforms has been difficult. Though China leads the world in the renewable energy economy, they lack the infrastructure to apply their products at home. And without a strong civil society and protection under the rule of law, there is little organized support for environmental advocacy and no accountability measures to ensure that environmental reforms are implemented after being enacted. In their latest five-year economic plan (from 2011-2015, the 12th in China’s history), the central government stressed renewable energy, sustainable development, and environmental protection. But bottom line economic growth still ultimately drives government legitimacy, making any actions that might harm the economy difficult to implement at the local level.
The U.S.-China climate agreement has had some immediate impacts. Organizers of the G-20 summit, which started on November 15th in Brisbane, Australia, quickly added climate change to the agenda. Many analysts are optimistic about the agreement’s long-term impact; as the number one and two polluters in the world, action on the part of the U.S. and China is likely to motivate other nations to take actual steps to combat climate change. The upcoming UNFCCC talks are likely to be more focused, now that China and the U.S. have drawn up actual plans to combat climate change. The UNFCCC talks in Paris next year are of paramount importance, as a replacement to the Kyoto Protocol is widely expected to be drafted. With tacit support from both the US and China stemming from their climate agreement, the path to a new climate treaty just got slightly smoother.
Further Reading:
Climate agreement
Effect on G20 Summit
Contributions by Alexi Stocker, Young Sun Park, and Benjamin Mandel