Violence to Victory: Turmoil in the Middle East

The Middle East has changed irrevocably in the last month. Not only has the world seen the fall of multiple regimes, but popular uprising has followed from the Levant to the Gulf. While Mubarak has stepped down in Egypt, the future of other regimes in the region are uncertain. History may hold some clues.

The spark

Some credit an incidence of self-immolation for igniting revolt in Tunisia. But it was only after a daring videographer captured images of municipal police using tear gas on a peaceful demonstration in the capital that protests became national. Ever since, with few exceptions, response by the police to such events has been heavy-handed and, in the eyes of protesters, unnecessarily violent.

Despite all this, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali might yet have retained his grip on power and quelled the revolution — had not significant factions of his military, on whose support he relied heavily during his 23-year reign, sided with protesters. It was the Tunisian military who were successful in “chasing away” Ben Ali’s personal security officials. After Ben Ali fled the country on Jan. 14, Tunisian Army Commander Rashid Ammar vowed to “protect the revolution.” Tunisia’s military never enjoyed a particularly close bond with Ben Ali; after witnessing substantial public unrest and an ineffective, authoritarian response by local authorities, it had little reason to support him.

Force and the loss of a leader

The Green Revolution of 2009 in Iran failed largely because the regime was able to convince the leader of the revolution that potential success was not worth the cost. Following the loss of Green candidate, Mir Houssein Mousavi, protests erupted in the streets over allegedly rigged elections and the regime was quick to respond.

Iran maintains a special branch of it’s military, apart from other forces: the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Council (IRGC) which first emerged from the ideologically charged militia movements loyal to Ayatollah Khomeini during the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The IRGC maintains an entirerly separate navy, air force and controls the Basij, a militia responsible for maintaining internal stability. The Guards therefore has a vested interest in supporting the current regime, which is why the Iranian government can comfortably rely on it for military support. The IRGC controlled Basij militia regularly assaulted the protesters, much of which was broadcast around the world.

As violent crackdowns increased throughout Tehran, Mousavi opted to appeal to the courts and the nation’s religious leaders rather than continue with weakened street protests, ultimately pulling the plug on a month-long streak of protests in Iran. Mousavi’s reluctance to allow more of his followers to suffer at the hands of the Basij militia ultimately led to the failure of the revolution. But not all protests require the fall of a regime to be successful.

The victory without fanfare

General lack of violence or any substantial political upheaval has been the central feature of recent protests in Jordan. Largely motivated by high unemployment and rising prices, demonstrations have been brief, generally peaceful, and concluded without total regime change. King Abdullah dismissed the sitting prime minister as well as the cabinet, and appointed a new government in order to appease protesters.

A defining feature of these protests has been the lack of force the government has had to employ. Neither the police nor the military have cracked down with much violence or used any sort of force to break them up. Although protesters may not be entirely appeased by the change of government, some have called for a transition to a constitutional monarchy in which Abdullah would act as a figurehead, the gestures made by the King have served to quell discontent for the near future. Other regimes have proved too entrenched in their old ways to survive the wave of grievances aimed at the government however.

A waiting question

The Yemeni government, led by President Ali Abdallah Saleh since 1978, has faced pressure to reform over the past few weeks. The government can rely on the military to stay loyal and maintain relative calm. Protests that have formed at the University of San’a, a public university in the country’s capital, have been large but civil because of the presence of the army, but in recent days protest have intensified and police presence has grown more forceful. Clashes between protesters and the police have grown increasingly violent.

The larger problem facing Yemen is that the state does not have control over much of the country. In fact, it would be difficult to say that the government has much control outside the capital, San’a, and a few other urban centers, problems which remain from Yemen’s unification in 1990. Currently, there are separatists’ movements in the North and the South, and a growing Al-Qaeda presence in many of the rural areas. While these groups act independently of one another, the lack of governmental power and control could serve to limit the impact of any potential reforms.

Recently, Saleh increased government and military salaries, cut tuition rates at public universities, dropped income taxes, and increased food subsidies in a bid to regain the trust of the people and to restore order. Saleh also recently announced that he will not run for re-election as President and that his son will not succeed him. Saleh had promised not to run again in 2005, only to renege on that promise and win another term.

Status quo

Syria is currently ruled by President Bashar al-Assad, who inherited the position when his father died in July 2000. Syria is technically a republic, but it has been under autocratic Baathist rule since the 1960s. It is unlikely the army would need to be employed to quell protests, largely because the regime’s level of control over life in Syria is near absolute. Several intelligence services, known collectively as the Mukhabarat, serve as the main tool of state authority and serve directly under the president.

The secret police are highly effective at suppressing dissident groups and the state has a high degree of control over information flow in the country. Groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, traditionally in opposition to the government, are suspicious of potential rivals and don’t have enough power to challenge the government alone. There is no free press and internet access is strictly controlled so the social networking tools used in Tunisia and Egypt to great effect are far more restricted. Despite allowing Facebook access following protests in Egypt, the organization of a successful opposition movement seems at best, an uphill battle.

The success story

Change may be on the way for the largest success in the revolutionary movement. Although President Hosni Mubarak stepped down as head of state last Friday, there are many questions that remain. The support given to the Egyptian military by international allies, including the United States, makes transition to a military oligarchy, nearly certain.

The road to true democracy, what the protests in Egypt have been calling for since Jan. 25, will be a long one. The sitting Parliament, which came to power last November in elections largely acknowledged to be fixed, has been dissolved and the constitution suspended. The interim military government will play a large role in determine the future of Egyptian democracy. It is impossible to say yet whether the protests were truly successful, or simply ushered in a different form of despotism.

For the past month, the Middle East has held the world’s attention. Revolution is a rare creature and the rapid spread of upheaval across the Arab world has been nothing short of remarkable. The region has been changed irrevocably and the full impact may not be realized for some time.