The Week of November 9th, 2015
Care
1. The voice of the people – maybe
Myanmar election
The world watched anxiously as Myanmar conducted an historic election – the first since a nominally civilian government was introduced in 2011, ending nearly 50 years of military rule. Although only slightly less than half of the seats have been declared, it is looking like a landslide victory for the center-left opposition, the National League of Democracy (NLD). With over 90% of the popular vote, the party appears to have received a clear-cut mandate from the people. The structure of the country’s constitution allots unelected military representatives 25% of the seats in the Hluttaw, the bicameral legislature of Myanmar, in what the generals call “disciplined democracy.” This means any party needs control of 67% of seats in order to govern without a coalition. It remains to be seen if NLD will capture a large enough majority.
Independent observers see the elections as a step towards democracy for Myanmar, and a hopeful change towards openness in an historically isolationist country. In 1990 the country held its first multiparty election in three decades, but the military did not like the result and refused to cede power. Many hope the military will accept the people’s mandate this time; the country’s military chief has recently pledged to “co-operate” with the new government, signaling reason for optimism.
NLD’s founder, Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of Aung San, a figure prominent in the Burmese independence movement of the 1940s, is banned from serving as president due to article 59F of the military-drafted constitution. The article, which many argue was included specifically to disqualify Ms. Suu Kyi, bars any Burmese whose children “owes allegiance to a foreign power” from power. Both of Ms. Suu Kyi’s children own British passports. Her party captured a decisive victory in 1990 election as well, but as mentioned earlier, the result was nullified, and she was placed under long-term house arrest. Ms. Suu Kyi has already made clear she is still the party leader and will call the shots, rendering any president she chooses a figurehead.
2. Meeting the neighbors
China-Taiwan summit
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou met in Singapore this past Saturday, the first meeting of the two country’s leaders since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949. Taiwan became a de facto state when China’s Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party), led by Chiang Kai-shek, retreated to the island after losing the civil war to the Mao Zedong’s Communist Party. On Saturday, Mr. Xi wore a red tie, the color of the Chinese Communist Party, and Mr. Ma a blue tie, the color of the Kuomintang. The two shook hands before reporters before settling into a meeting room for a brief public discussion.
To this day, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) officially considers Taiwan a renegade province, despite the latter’s claim to sovereignty. On Saturday Mr. Xi subtly reiterated Beijing’s commitment to a single China, referring to Chinese on both sides of the strait as “one family.” Mr. Ma countered with a call for both sides to respect each other’s values and way of life.
Mr. Ma and Mr. Xi’s meeting comes at a turning point in cross-strait relations. Throughout his seven-and-a-half year presidency, Mr. Ma has worked to improve relations with mainland China. Bilateral trade has increased, as have direct flights between the two countries. On Saturday, the two men endorsed a cross-strait hotline, and Mr. Xi signaled that China would be willing to admit Taiwan into its Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, although joining the organization would not signify recognition of Taiwan’s sovereignty by Beijing. Despite the progress, Mr. Ma is on his way out of office, and it appears his Kuomintang is unlikely to win the presidential election in January. Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party’s rise in the polls is due largely to anti-PRC fearmongering. If the Democratic Progressive Party wins in January 2016, the future of cross-strait relations will be less than certain.
3. Losing ground
Provincial election in India
In its second major setback of 2015, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has suffered a decisive loss in state assembly elections in Bihar, one of India’s largest and poorest states. The BJP, led by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, retains control of merely 52 out of 243 seats in Bihar’s state assembly. Opposition to the BJP consisted of a broad coalition of regional parties helmed by Nitish Kumar, now the incoming Chief Minister of Bihar, as well as “Lalu” Prasad Yadav, a politician beloved within Bihar who spent three months in jail on corruption charges in 2013. Mr. Kumar and Mr. Yadav’s coalition hold 158 out of 243 seats in Bihar’s state assembly after the election.
The Bihar election marks the second such loss the Modi-led BJP has suffered since its historic victory in the 2014 general election when Mr. Modi became prime minister. The BJP also lost 67 out of 70 seats to an upstart anti-corruption campaign in Delhi’s state elections in February. The loss in Bihar represents the most recent step in the erosion of the mandate which Mr. Modi was swept in with in 2014.
Many see the loss in Bihar as voters’ repudiation of underhanded tactics employed by the BJP. Mr. Modi failed to publicly condemn the murder of Muslims suspected of stealing sacred cows by Hindu mobs, and Mr. Modi’s right hand man, Amit Shah, said that were the BJP to lose the election, “firecrackers would be let off in celebration in Pakistan”, thus linking the opposition to the Muslim portion of Bihar. Both were seen as attempts to inflame India’s division between Hindus and Muslims in an effort to increase turnout from Hindus in support of the BJP.
Mr. Modi and the BJP now stand far removed from their sweeping victory of 2014, and following these losses in Delhi and Bihar, questions of whether Mr. Modi will be a one-term prime minister are being entertained.
4. All in the family...
Venezuelan president’s relatives arrested
US agents recently arrested two relatives of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on charges of drug-trafficking. Efraín Antonio Campo Flores and Flores de Freitas were arrested Tuesday night in Port-au-Prince, Haiti by local police and turned over to the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). They were then flown to New York to appear before a federal judge on Thursday. Mr. Campo Flores identified himself as the stepson of Mr. Maduro, having been raised by his wife, First Lady Cilia Flores. Mr. de Freitas identified himself as the nephew of the first lady. The two men were charged with conspiring to smuggle approximately 800 kilograms of cocaine into the United States. The arrests come amidst American prosecutors’ investigations into alleged drug-trafficking and money-laundering activities by top members of the Venezuelan military, police, and government officials.
Mr. Maduro’s government is facing legislative elections in December amidst economic volatility that has resulted in a 200% inflation rate and widespread scarcities of food and medicine in Venezuela. The latest projections by the IMF indicate that the Venezuelan economy is expected to contract by 10% this year. Ties between the United States and Venezuela have improved marginally following the United States’s implementation of sanctions against Venezuela for human rights violations this past March, although the United States maintains several allegations of drug trafficking and other illicit activity by members of the upper echelons of Mr. Maduro’s administration. The recent arrests pose a major problem for Mr. Maduro in the upcoming elections and leave future relations with the United States politically dubious.
5. ...and out of the family
Child confiscated from lesbian foster parents
The Supreme Court justices have made their decision on gay marriage, but other judges are determined to have their say as well. In Utah, Scott Johansen, a juvenile court judge, ordered that a child who was fostered to a married lesbian couple be removed from their care and re-fostered with a heterosexual couple. His decision came despite the biological mother asking the couple to adopt her child. Mr. Johansen claimed to have research proving the harm of growing up with homosexual parents. April Hoagland, one of the partners in the marriage, believes Mr. Johansen to be religiously motivated. The Utah Division of Child and Family Services is looking into a possible appeal. But for now, the child has been taken away.
The research Mr. Johansen purportedly relies on flies in the face of the social scientific consensus, that parents’ sexual orientation does not hurt their children’s development. If anything, the harm Mr. Johansen is concerned about is something of a self-fulfilling prophecy – research suggests that any stress from being under the care of homosexual parents is due to social stigma.
Mr. Johansen’s move also runs into problems with numbers – there are more children in need of foster parents in Utah than there are families willing to take them in. Preventing gay couples from doing so only exacerbates the problem. But while Mr. Johansen may be fighting a losing war against empirics, logic, and human rights, this episode – along with that of Kim Davis – is a reminder that homosexuality still has significant barriers to overcome.
Don’t Care
0. Sour grapes
Whining about wine
It is a story straight out of an Armando Iannucci satire, and it just so happened to unfold in the country that gave satire its name. Earlier this week, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani refused to attend an official diplomatic dinner in Paris if the French were to be serving wine at the reception. The Iranian president is set to embark on a European relations tour next week, stopping first to meet with Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi in Rome and then arriving in Paris on November 16th. In the wake of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear program that Mr. Rouhani signed with Western powers this summer, the reformist president is seeking to improve relations with his European counterparts and build a diplomatic relationship with the West.
Evidently, in this goodwill tour, the buck stops at postprandial imbibing: Mr. Rouhani refused French President François Hollande’s invitation to a visite d’État, with the promise of fine French wine. The Iranians countered with a proposal for an alcohol-free meal of halal meat, according to Islamic Sharia code. Given Mr. Hollande’s sophisticated taste in French wine, the Iranians truly will not know what they are missing. (In a previous wine-related non-scandal, the White House was criticized last year for serving President Hollande cheap California labels at his state dinner).
This whole Bacchanalian brouhaha is a frivolous distraction from the momentousness of this historical moment in Iran-Western diplomatic relations. It appears to be a response to domestic politics concerns for the two leaders, each facing down nationalistic hardliners in their home countries. Mr. Rouhani overcame conservative Islamist opposition in signing the nuclear deal, so it seems his hard-line stance on diplomatic beverages is a nod to his Islamist opponents. Likewise, Mr. Hollande is facing a nationalist uprising in the form of the National Front, so his insistence on secular republican tradition can be seen as a means of exalting French values (and produce). Those domestic concerns converged in satirical fashion in this Affaire du Vin, with much of the world laughing at both its frivolity and – it is the French, after all – its predictability.
David Gernon, Alexi Stocker, Max Rowe, Leah Downs, Wooyoung Lee, and Will Kirkland contributed