China's Looming Transition

The Weekly Focus examines China's upcoming leadership change.

According to the Chinese New Year cycle, the year 2013 will be the year of the dragon, which historically has been associated with major changes. This prediction seems particularly pertinent as China’s leadership will see a major leadership transition this year. Hu Jintao, the current president of China, came to power in 2002 and this year will be the last of his term. Hu will relinquish his posts as Communist Party Secretary in 2012 and the post of President of the People’s Republic of China in 2013. Our Weekly Focus will examine the machinations behind this process of transition, as well as the implications this leadership change will have for China and the rest of the world.

After the tumult that marked decades of one-man rule following the 1949 revolution, Chinese leaders are now restricted to two consecutive five year terms, reflecting the popular Chinese aphorism “tall trees attract wind.” Along with the presidency, 2012 will see replaced seven of the nine seats in the Politburo Standing Committee, China’s most powerful decision-making body. Furthermore, hundreds of more minor posts will be turned over with the transfer of power. The new leaders of the Politburo Standing Committee will be selected from the highest echelons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), with backroom deals and shifting alliances amongst party members to ultimately determine the candidates.

Xi Jinping, the country’s current vice president, is seen as the individual most likely to replace Hu. Jiang Zemin, who was president from 1992-2002, was hand selected by his predecessor Deng Xiaoping . Likewise, Hu was handpicked by Jiang to succeed him, and it is widely believed that this pattern will continue, with Hu selecting Xi. While the transition will be taking place this year and next, the Politburo Standing Committee and other top party officials have likely known who will succeed Hu for at least the past year as support for the successor is built up beforehand in order to have a smooth transition. The greater population of China is given no say in the matter, and for all practical purposes is completely absent from any involvement in the transition. This has not stopped the CPP from preemptively placing restrictions on prime time television programming and stepping up its already strict control of dissidents.

Besides the actual process of transition, the change in leadership brings with it the potential for changes in China that can only happen once every ten years. Xi Jinping’s developed a political reputation as party secretary of Shanghai, where he skillfully handled a difficult post. Shanghai has one of the most liberalized economies in all of China, and it grew rapidly under Xi’s leadership. This has led some analysts to suggest that economic reforms on a wide scale could very well be on the horizon for China if Xi does indeed become President.

Of more importance to the rest of the world is what effect the change in leadership will have on how China interacts with the international community. The past two years have seen China take a more aggressive stance on regional issues, such as territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and with Vietnam and the Philippines over control of the Spratly Islands (and the large estimated oil reserves beneath them). China’s aggression will likely continue through the power transition, as the perception of China as an assertive regional power is important to many within the CCP. There is little to suggest that Xi Jinping would discontinue this policy in the years beyond the upcoming transition. China has the economic might to back up a more aggressive foreign policy. Furthermore, both members of the CCP and average Chinese citizens tend to be acutely aware of periods of Chinese history when China dominated the entire region, and thus many view recent Chinese posturing in the region as a return to the historical norm.

The past two leadership changes in China were remarkably smooth. However, in the back of the minds of older CCP members are the tumultuous leadership transitions of decades before; these were characterized by purges, violence, and betrayal on the national stage. As the most populous country in the world, China’s leadership change will have implications that will reach all corners of the globe. Whether in terms of foreign policy or economic liberalization, the year of the dragon will certainly be interesting.