A Loss of Support: The Future of ISIS

July 12, 2005, Spc. Ronald Shaw Jr. Iraqi soldiers on a counterterrorism mission. 

By Patrick Schmidt

February 10, 2026

Since the American departure from Iraq in 2011, a new branch of Al-Qaeda known as the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has expanded its power given the lack of military opposition that once came from coalition forces. The growth of ISIS has led to the extension of its campaign of terror across the region into Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. It is estimated that ISIS has almost 7,000 members fighting battles across the Middle East. Despite the group’s size and territorial expansion, the radical group is facing a serious crisis due to loss of support.

On the Syrian front, a recent turn of events has caused other Syrian rebel groups and less extreme Al-Qaeda affiliated groups to turn on ISIS. The teamwork of other rebels within Syria has caused ISIS to lose almost all of its controlled territory as well as strategic crossing points on the Syria-Turkish border and its headquarters in the city of Aleppo. Meanwhile, in Iraq, ISIS used the support of a minority of disgruntled Sunnis to stage operations against the Shia majority government. The latest stage in these operations has been the seizure of Fallujah and Ramadi in Anbar province. However, military aid from the United States and support from Sunni tribes has allowed the Iraqi government to increase pressure on ISIS and slowly reclaim lost territory. ISIS has also claimed responsibility for car bomb attacks in Lebanon, which may signal a further expansion of terror operations.

Although these developments may seem frightening, ISIS has been unable to maintain a strong enough presence in each of the three previously mentioned countries because of military defeats and the constant shifting of forces throughout the region. The group’s reliance on foreign fighters also alienates the local populations. The constant capture or kidnapping of aid, media, and medical workers further separates the group even from other mainstream Al-Qaeda groups. In addition, the leader of Al-Qaeda, Ayman Zawahiri, criticized ISIS’s attacks against moderate groups of Sunnis and Shias. Therefore, despite the frightening developments in the region and the threat of continued violence, the future of ISIS looks uncertain. If there continues to be a united front against their operations from within the region as well as continued Western counterterrorism support, the group’s threat to regional security could diminish drastically and possibly lead to the elimination of one of the main branches of Al-Qaeda. In addition, ISIS itself has been recently denounced by Al-Qaeda, further discrediting it.