The Week of February 12th, 2018

Care

1. A sticky situation

Jacob Zuma has been ousted; will his vice-president lead differently?

After coming under intense pressure from his own party, Jacob Zuma, the president of South Africa, announced his resignation. Mr Zuma has a rich history of political involvement. From his early days as a member of the military wing of the African National Congress (ANC) in the 1960s to his election as president in 2009, his political career has been intimately shaped by sweeping historical forces in South Africa. Few can question Mr Zuma’s loyalty to the ANC, the only party to hold the presidency in post-apartheid South Africa, from his imprisonment alongside Nelson Mandela to his election as chair of the party in 1994. However, growing discontentment in South Africa and vocal opposition to Mr Zuma’s presidency within the ANC culminated in this recent ousting. Chief among the criticisms of the ANC’s former intelligence boss was that he ran a corrupt and personalistic administration.

The shadow of corruption hanging over Mr Zuma’s administration became crystallized in October, after the Supreme Court of Appeals gave the green light to charges of corruption, racketeering and fraud, among others, against the embattled president. A central focus of the case against Mr Zuma were his close ties to the Guptas, a prominent South-African Indian family accused of taking advantage of their political connections to enrich themselves at the expense of the public. Police were quick to move against the Guptas this past week, raiding their mansion and making arrests. However, if the charges against Mr Zuma are any indication, the scope of corruption goes much further.

Cyril Ramaphosa has been president-in-waiting since his election as ANC leader in December. His timeline has now been sped up. Mr Ramaphosa, previously vice-president, has been a prominent voice against the corruption of the Zuma administration. Although his ascendance could potentially bring hope to South Africans disillusioned by the current political system, Mr Ramaphosa will have to deal with a litany of national problems, including high unemployment and violent crime. His close association with the previous administration will not help either. The challenge facing the ANC is not only banishing the spectre of corruption and pay-to-play, but also governing a nation that is losing faith in the party of freedom.

2. Not so grand (coalition)

Germany finally forms a government

After grueling negotiations lasting over four months, Germany has finally proposed a new ruling government. Calling the government new, however, may be misleading as it consists of the same “grand coalition” in charge before the 2017 elections, consisting of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats, their Bavarian equivalent in the Christian Social Union, and the center-left Social Democrats (CDU, CSU, and SPD, respectively).
However, much has changed politically in both Germany and the EU since the formation of the 2013 grand coalition. Chiefly, there has been a rise in authoritarianism in Eastern Europe and populism in Western Europe. While Germany had previously been seen as immune to these forces due to lessons learned from its horrific past, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party received 12.5% of the vote in the 2017 election, an 8% increase from 2013.
Although Ms Merkel will begin her fourth term as chancellor, the CDU’s lead in the polls has dropped substantially since taking office in 2005, forcing the new coalition to capitulate to some of the SPD’s demands in the coalition agreement. In addition to a large reduction on short-term work contracts, the finance and foreign minister roles of Ms Merkel’s cabinet will be filled by SPD members. As the SPD is often the more Europhilic of the big parties, the concession on these two cabinet roles could be a significant steps towards reform and integration towards Brussels.
The fate of the proposed government still rests on the SPD, which is expected vote on the coalition on March 4. Although negotiations were seen as a success for the party, there is still disagreement within the party regarding the political impact of entering into another coalition with the CDU/CSU. Party leader Martin Schulz has resigned to facilitate a smoother transition to the new government, handing the office to left-winger Andrea Nahles. Yet one should be hesitant to press the panic button on Germany just yet, as their government, along with others such as Emmanuel Macron’s France, look finally ready to address some of the structural problems with the EU.

3. Holding firm

Israeli police recommend charging the prime minister

A year-long graft investigation into Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, concluded this week, with the Israeli police recommending that Mr Netanyahu be charged with “bribery, fraud, and breach of trust”.  The findings accuse Bibi of accepting nearly $300,000 in gifts over a ten-year period, specifically focusing on two cases, known as “case 1000” and “case 2000”.  The former case describes a gifts-for-favor exchange, and the latter alleges that Mr Netanyahu engaged in backroom deals with a publisher of a popular Israeli newspaper in exchange for favorable news coverage.

These findings as they stand are legally non-binding, so it will be up to the country’s attorney general, Avichai Mandelblit, to determine whether or not the prime minister should be indicted. In the face of a right-wing backlash against law enforcement, Mr Mandelblit said he approved of the report and that the initial investigation was done “by the book”. He elaborated that he would “indict Netanyahu without hesitation if necessary”.

Even if indicted, the possibility of Netanyahu stepping down remains a matter of heated debate. The supreme court has ruled previously that government ministers once indicted, may not remain in their posts, but there is no consensus over whether that principle applies in the case of the country’s leader. The worst Mr Netanyahu could hope for is a formal bribery charge, but even that would be a first in Israeli political history, and consequently would have no guiding legal precedent.

There is precedent, however, for similar allegations resulting in the resignation of an Israeli PM. In 2008, Mr Netanyahu’s predecessor, Ehud Olmert, resigned a week after similar bribery charges arose in the form of a police report. Mr Olmert was eventually convicted and served seventeen months in prison. Nonetheless, Mr Netanyahu is known for his political endurance; in 2019 he will surpass David Ben-Gurion, founder of the country, for time served in office (should he remain in office). The consensus is that “The Magician” will not back down any time soon, and will continue to vociferously deny any wrongdoing.

4. Spend twice, cut once

Congress passes a real budget

President Donald Trump signed a two-year budget last Tuesday, ending a brief five-hour shutdown triggered by Rand Paul, a Republican senator deciding to filibuster the bill.

The budget deal, crafted by Republican and Democratic congressional leadership, would raise government spending by $300 billion over the course of the next two years, with roughly equal amounts allotted to increases in defense and domestic non-discretionary spending. The bill passed with bipartisan support from the establishment wings of both parties, as progressives resisted the bill for failing to avert the possibility that DACA recipients will be deported and fiscal conservatives rejected its heavy increase in domestic spending. Conservatives, usually friendly to Mr Trump's agenda, reviled the agreement: the Heritage Foundation, a right-wing think tank, argued that the bill's extension of subsidies would cause severe market distortions, while Mark Meadows, who chairs the hard-line House Freedom Caucus, a group of conservative lawmakers who fancy themselves kingmakers, decried the increase in domestic spending as a sign that "The swamp won and the American taxpayer lost". The Trump administration's response to the criticism was muted. It seems likely that Congress will next turn to dealing with immigration reform, while the federal deficit and debt continues skyrocketing to unprecedented levels.

5. About face

A British territory becomes the first in the world to revoke same-sex marriage

Less than a year after Bermuda authorized same-sex marriage, the British territory’s legislature has signed a law revoking that right. Bermudian same-sex couples will now only be able to enter into domestic partnerships, not marry. The volte-face makes Bermuda the first jurisdiction in the world to reverse course on same-sex marriage after permitting it.

The right for Bermudian same-sex couples to marry was vouchsafed by Bermuda’s Supreme Court in May 2017. It took the territory’s legislature mere months to respond to the court decision by passing a bill overturning the decision, which was signed into law on Wednesday.

Walton Brown, the Bermudian Minister of Home Affairs, said that “about a half-dozen” same-sex couples married in the interregnum while such unions were legal.

Due to Bermuda’s political status as a British territory, the new law could have been stayed by the British government if had London chosen to exert its will. Though Britain’s prime minister, Theresa May, said that she was “seriously disappointed” about the decision, she added that she chose not intervene because “our relationship with the overseas territories is based on partnership and respect for their right to democratic self-government.”

Don’t Care

0. We’re all weak sisters

Kim Jong-Un’s sister wows at the Olympics

As the Olympics kicked off last week, the rogue nation of North Korea featured prominently in global news. The hermit kingdom’s decision to march under a unified flag with democratic South Korea raised hopes for a peaceful resolution to a conflict that has dragged on since the 1950s. As many dovish American newspapers rejoiced at the event, their attention eventually focused on one individual, leader Kim Jong Un’s sister Kim Yo-jong. Articles from several mainstream American outlets praised the dictator’s sister for her charm and diplomatic poise. When Mike Pence, America’s vice-president, expressed his disapproval of the North Korean dictatorship, notably by refusing to stand for the country’s anthem and avoiding a dinner with Ms Kim, outlets such as the New York Times went as far as to contrast Ms Kim favorably with Mr Pence.

Eventually, an inevitable backlash took place to the adulation the press expressed for Ms Kim. Outlets as varied as the ideologically right-wing National Review to even the clickbait-oriented liberal Buzzfeed News lambasted the coverage of Ms Kim, the latter going as far as to ask “What the hell is wrong with you people” as it pointed out how the woman journalists were praising is part of the dictatorship with the single worst human rights record in the modern world. Ultimately, much like Korea’s appearance in the Olympics in its entirety, Ms Kim’s appearance is a passing distraction, with no real chance of having a meaningful impact against the backdrop of nuclear conflict. It does, however, serve to illustrate how both positive desires such as the hope for peace, and biases such as the media’s hatred of the Trump administration, can cause coverage to lose sight of basics.

Jason Frankel, Avi Dravid, Daniel Sacks, Dominic Bayer, Max Rowe, and Jose Trejos contributed to this report.