The Week of January 12, 2026

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1. Boko Haram Raids in Nigeria

On January 7, the Islamist terrorist group Boko Haram reportedly raided the town of Baga in northeastern Nigeria, the part of the country they have dominated in the last few years. The extent of the devastation of Baga is not fully known, but some in the region have said about 2,000 dead litter the streets. The government adamantly denies this assessment of the casualty figure, saying instead that only about 150 are dead. There is no way of knowing for sure, since the area is too dangerous to permit close surveillance of the damage. If the higher estimate is closer to the truth, then it would mark the largest single attack in Boko Haram’s history. Satellite photographs from before and after the attack show hundreds of building demolished and lots of foliage burnt, backing up the accounts of mass, indiscriminate destruction.

This horrific attack and the relative lack of outrage from the Nigerian government or from other states around the world is likely due to the Nigerian elections, which are coming in the very near future. Dwelling on the increasing awfulness and barbarity of the Boko Haram problem would be tantamount to political suicide for President Goodluck Johnathan’s campaign. Also, the recent terrorist attacks in Paris have largely overshadowed other Islamist violence in the eyes of the rest of the world, whether because of a lack of focus on Africa or because the problem of Boko Haram is already widely understood. As long as the Nigerian government and the rest of world do not combat Boko Haram’s egregious behavior more severely, the terrorist group is likely to continue their attacks.

2. Al Qaeda Claiming Responsibility for Paris Attacks

On Wednesday, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) claimed responsibility for the brutal assault on French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo that killed twelve people last week. AQAP’s press release and video claimed its leaders had selected the targets, although it appears the gunmen, Chérif and Saïd Kouachi, planned the attack themselves. AQAP did not take responsibility for last Friday’s deadly attack on a kosher supermarket, although the video and press release praised the actions of gunman Amedy Coulibay.

These claims are substantiated by a significant amount of evidence; Chérif Kouachi travelled to Yemen in 2011 for training and funding from Al Qaeda, and Saïd may have made the trip as well. Prior to their fateful shootout with the police last Friday, the Kouachi brothers made numerous statements claiming links to AQAP, while gunman Amedy Coulibay, in a video released after his death, praised the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a rival organization of AQAP.

Almost all evidence supports AQAP’s, and the Kouachi brothers’, claim that they were operating on behalf of the terrorist organization, and this attack marks a significant development in AQAP tactics. The organization has moved to a decentralized command structure, training operatives, and assigning them targets, but leaving planning in their operatives’ hands, thereby minimizing contact once operatives return to their country of origin. This tactic presents two major threats to Western, and Middle Eastern, intelligence and security. First, minimized communication makes it more difficult for intelligence and law enforcement to intercept messages between AQAP leaders and their operatives.[3] Second, reduced involvement in attack planning allows AQAP to focus on training and financing operatives, sending more out in the hope that at a few will be successful. Western powers’ preoccupation with ISIS, and relative neglect of Al Qaeda, may have come to an end.

3. Haiti in Political Crisis

Haiti, a country of perennial poverty still struggling to recover from a devastating 2010 earthquake, is now in political crisis. Evans Paul, a former mayor of the capital city Port-au-Prince, was nominated for prime minister in December but the parliament never debated or approved his selection before the body dissolved in January. Now, President Michel Martelly, who nominated Paul, legally rules by decree and has instated Paul as prime minister. Many blame Martelly’s political inexperience (Martelly was a singer before entering politics) and his overconfidence for the series of events that led to political gridlock and no new elections for the parliament.

Haiti is one of the weakest economies in the Western hemisphere and remains entirely dependent on the immense flow of international aid that generally bypasses the government and evades its oversight. The Organization of American States (OAS) announced support for Haiti’s attempts to hold new elections as soon as possible. The country’s neighbors likely fear unrest or instability exacerbating the nation’s long-standing problems. But to the impoverished masses of Haiti, this parliamentary dispute is undoubtedly a distant concern in the context of daily hardships.

4. Sri Lankan Election Surprises

Sri Lanka’s presidential election threw up a major surprise, as increasingly authoritarian incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa lost to Maithripala Sirisena, a former ally. In perhaps a bigger surprise, Rajapaksa agreed to peacefully handover of power. Rajapaksa called an early presidential election to win an unprecedented third term, but his economic performance and victory over the separatist Tamil Tigers were not enough to override the brutal nature of that victory, the failure of recent economic growth to reach the poor, or the corruption of Rajapaksa’s regime. Members of the new government have alleged that Rajapaksa only made the decision to concede after the military and senior officials refused Rajapaksa’s attempts to declare a state of emergency and hold onto power. Rajapaksa denies this claim.

Regardless of Rajapaksa’s intentions, the new president has more to worry about. Sirisena has promised to be less authoritarian and has already pledged to abolish an Internet censorship scheme. In a further departure from Rajapaksa, he has promised to curtail Sri Lanka’s increasing business involvement with China, although that may be difficult – Chinese investment has led to significant growth on the island country. In other ways, Sirisena might not be so different than his predecessor. Tamil and Muslim minorities voted in mass for Sirisena - rejecting Rajapaksa’s uncompromising approach toward minorities - but Sirisena has dismissed the idea of giving minorities the greater autonomy they demand. This might not be a huge surprise – as recently as last November, Sirisena was a prominent member of Rajapaksa’s government, and Sirisena has said Rajapaksa will not be tried for war crimes in Sri Lanka’s bloody civil war against minority separatists. Though the Sri Lankan people will be seeing a change in leadership, there will likely be only minor changes in policy.

5. New Year, New Congressional Congestion     

The Republican Party’s recently acquired congressional majority is beginning to present difficulties for the Obama administration. Key disputes over immigration reform and foreign policy are coming to a head as congressional Republicans are attempting to repeal or counteract the president’s immigration reform executive orders. These decrees aim to make it easier for those up for deportation to delay the proceedings and attempt to ameliorate difficulties in the work permit obtainment process. A debate on the issue is now being forced by repeal clauses in a funding bill for the Department of Homeland Security, which supervises the protection of the country’s borders.

Another key issue in the executive-legislative feud centers on sanctioning Iran. In recent months, negotiations with the Iranian government over the issue of its nuclear program have been underway, yet many in the Republican Congress see the president’s stance as appeasement and seeks to undo negotiations with increased sanctions. The White House disagrees, stating that the new sanctions may make reaching a mutually acceptable solution for all parties increasingly difficult. The last two years of the Obama administration will likely see many such disputes between the two politically polarized branches of government.

Dont care

0. Islamic State Hacking CENTCOM

A group claiming to be the Islamic State hacked the Twitter and YouTube accounts of the US Central Command this week in an apparent attempt to further coerce the American military community into action. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) operates out of the Middle East and is one of the nine unified commands in the US Military. The hackers began by tweeting out a warning to soldiers that they would be future targets. They also published a longer warning of continued cyber jihad and released several YouTube videos of IS propaganda. These hacks spurred alarm in the US and the military community. Specifically, military families are concerned over claims by Daesh that they have access to personal information including home addresses. In response, many military personnel have begun deleting their online profiles.

Though it represents a very public embarrassment for the US military, not much else should be made of these cyber attacks. It has not been proven whether the hackers are actually affiliated with IS. Regardless, the hackers’ chief goal is to coerce the US public through fear into military action that will reflect negatively on the country—this is a well-worn terrorist tactic that has worked before. Ultimately, to react rashly would be a victory for the hackers.

Wooyoung Lee, Ryan McGinnis, Liam Conway-Pearson, Ben Mandel, and Sam Housekeeper contributed.