The Week of January 18th, 2016

Care

1. Changing horses mid-Strait

Taiwanese elections

On January 16th, Taiwan elected its first female president, the Democratic Progressive Party’s Tsai Ing-wen. China believes Ms. Tsai will pursue de jure independence for Taiwan. Ms. Tsai is wary of closer ties with China, and her election could usher in a period of cross-Strait hostility. Increased tension would have significant ramifications for the United States, as it would exacerbate broader regional instability and force the US to act.

Over the past eight years, Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou has ushered in a period of rapprochement, which culminated in his historic meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in November. Taiwan’s electorate, however, has resoundingly rejected Mr. Ma’s presidency, as evidenced by Ms. Tsai’s landslide victory. China has made clear that all of the gains made under Mr. Ma are based on a “political foundation,” namely acceptance of the ‘1992 consensus.’ This consensus is mutual recognition that there is only one China.  However, both sides are also free to interpret the so-called “One China Principle” as they see fit. This agreement may seem obscure and legalistic, but it remains pivotal to the success of cross-Strait relations. While Ms. Tsai has advocated “maintaining the status quo,” she has refused to endorse the 1992 consensus. China has responded that she must do so to maintain the status quo. Otherwise, cross-Strait relations could worsen.

If China is not satisfied, it could attempt to force Ms. Tsai to adopt a more conciliatory stance. China could halt negotiations over future agreements, further isolate Taiwan internationally, take away some of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies, or accelerate its military build-up. Ms. Tsai might then respond by further distancing Taiwan from China.

While the US does not have a treaty obligation to come to Taiwan’s defense if China chooses to use force to compel unification, under the Taiwan Relations Act the US considers “any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means…of grave concern.” If cross-Strait tensions boil over, the United States would presumably be forced to respond in some fashion. Such events might be avoided with a policy of “dual deterrence,” which would consist of not moving closer to China or pushing for Taiwanese independence.

2. Dead in the water

Flint water crisis

The American city of Flint, Michigan is currently suffering a clean water crisis due to lead contamination from its water infrastructure. Long-term effects of lead poisoning on children are well-documented and those who drank and bathed in the unsafe water did so for months before the high levels were detected. Developmental disabilities will be a concern, both physically and neurologically. President Obama declared a federal emergency for the county on January 16th, a status usually reserved for areas of natural disaster.

The crisis has roots in the city’s choice in 2014 to switch water supplies in order to cut costs while waiting for a new water pipeline, a wait made worse by Michigan’s current climate of austerity politics. The state appointed emergency managers to control municipal finances in several financially struggling cities, including Flint, which left the residents of Flint with little say in the sourcing of the city’s water. Had the city had full autonomy, it appears likely that the city would have chosen against this measure.

Making matters worse, once the problem began to surface publicly, the state publicly downplayed concerns and ignored complaints and worries from local residents and activists. Emails recently released by the office of Governor Rick Snyder display nonchalance from the state’s top officials while treating the crisis. They skeptically refer to medical findings of increased lead levels in children’s blood as mere “data.” They describe the troubling color, taste, and smell of the water as simply “less than savory.” And they pretend to sympathize and then ask for people to stop causing anxiety. There is no evidence of a grand cover-up, but the callous disregard for potential and needless human suffering is appalling.

Finally, some critics contend that race was a factor in the state’s handling of the crisis. Hillary Clinton took the opportunity to reference Flint during last week’s debate, claiming that rich, white kids in Detroit’s suburbs would not have been treated the same way. Flint is a majority African-American city, and a large portion of the state’s African-American population lives in cities under emergency manager control.

In the end, after the human costs and health concerns, the greatest fallout from this tragedy will be the loss of trust in government that the people of Flint will feel. As Flint’s sheriff put it, “They have lost faith in the capacity of government to work with them. And it’s hard to say, ‘You know, you’re wrong.’”

3. Hot and bothered

Hottest year ever

Global temperatures in 2015 were the warmest on record, according to a new report out of the United Kingdom’s Met Office. Last year’s temperatures were approximately 0.75 degrees Celsius warmer than the average from 1961–1990, as dramatic an increase as scientist’s least optimistic projections for 2015 entailed. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NASA show that global temperatures rose 0.13 degrees Celsius in 2014 alone. The data coincides with the development of numerous unusually strong storms in the western hemisphere. Last week, Tropical Storm Alex was upgraded to hurricane status, marking the first January hurricane since 1938; the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. On the east coast of the US, a blizzard is expected to clobber the DC area, dropping up to 30” of snow and potentially surpassing the famed "Knickerbocker Storm” of 1922, which killed roughly 100 people.

While the alarming climate data tells an important part of the story, the especially wet El Niño season this year is likely exacerbating extreme weather in the western hemisphere and contributing to recent powerful and untimely storms. Although the unusually wet season may pass, climate change will continue, raising questions about how policymakers will handle the long-term environmental problems. Last December, a consortium of 195 nations met in Paris to pass a global climate accord, with members pledging to lower emissions in the coming years. Some countries may be forced to sacrifice more than others. Developing nations that rely heavily on fossil fuels to drive growth (such as India) may find it difficult to reconcile economic and environmental goals. Moreover, the plummeting price of oil may disincentivize investment in clean energy. Nonetheless, the outlook for clean energy in 2016 seems positive. Investment in solar power is projected to grow in the US and China this year, and the US coal industry is predicted to continue shrinking.

4. Dark and full of terrors

Terrorist attacks

Tumultuous times seem to be upon the world with greater and greater incidence, influence, and extent. In just last week, attacks have been reported in Burkina Faso, Jakarta, and Bacha Khan University in Pakistan. In Burkina Faso, a luxury hotel popular with Western diplomats in the capital Ouagadougou found itself under siege. Militants took some hostage and shot others on Friday night, leaving around 30 people dead. Security forces were able to enter the hotel early Saturday morning and liberate 126 hostages, half of whom were then hospitalized. Al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for the attack, and it came in the wake of sweeping regime change in Burkina Faso that replaced nearly three decades of autocratic rule with a popularly backed democracy. In Jakarta, suicide bombers in the heart of the city used firearms and grenades against civilians and police. There were six or seven casualties and 20 injured, which is ambiguously relieving given that there were a total of five explosions in the city and five other unexploded bombs that were discovered. Five of the casualties were assailants, and they bore links to ISIS. At Bacha Khan University, militants raided the school during an assembly in a timed attack that would ensure the most casualties. The assailants systematically shot at and threw grenades at students and faculty across campus, with 22 losing their lives. Responsibility for the attack has not yet been entirely accounted for, as Taliban spokesmen have both accepted blame for the attacks and disavowed any role. Whoever the blame should fall on, it is likely that this was also the result of religiously inspired terrorism.

The level of coordination in these attacks speaks unfortunately to an extensive network of terrorist organizations that have been able to conduct raids and onslaughts both within what were thought to be the confines of their respective regions (i.e. the Levant or the Middle East) and outside of them. It is likely that such attacks will continue in the near future underneath religious or anti-democratic frameworks, especially as some ISIS fighters in Syria return to their home countries.

5. Glimmer of hope

Iranian nuclear deal

On Saturday the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that its inspectors had found that Iran had complied with the agreements it signed with major world powers back in July 2015. The IAEA corroborated Iranian reports that the country had sent over 8.5 tons of enriched uranium out of the country, dismantled 12,000 centrifuges, and poured concrete into a reactor capable of producing plutonium. Some Western sanctions against Iran have been lifted, allowing Iran to sell its oil in the global market and freeing over $100 billion in Iranian assets held overseas. European firms are poised to enter the Iranian market, hoping to capitalize on a growing middle class and educated population. However, there are still a number of sanctions in place against Iran, which will be repealed in succession as the country continues to comply with the provisions of the nuclear deal for the next decade.

The announcement of “Implementation Day” – which consists of corroboration of Iran’s compliance and the subsequent lifting of sanctions – came mere hours after the United States and Iran engaged in a prisoner exchange, which returned five Americans, including a Washington Post reporter, to the US in exchange for seven Iranians accused of breaking American embargoes. Iran’s compliance with the nuclear deal and the successful exchange of prisoners signals a new era in relations between Iran and the West. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani called Implementation Day a “glorious victory,” and US Secretary of State John Kerry declared the world a “safer place.”

Not all politicians and leaders are happy with the deal, however. The Israeli government remains committed to watching the Iranians themselves, concerned that the nation will still attempt to build a nuclear weapon. Republican presidential candidates, from Donald Trump to Marco Rubio, warned the deal only strengthens Hezbollah and Iran’s other proxies in the Middle East.

Celebrations and objections aside, the Iranian nuclear deal is still in its early stages. With the US presidential election less than a year away, and no end in sight to Israeli-Iranian tensions, there are myriad problems that could yet derail the agreement, regardless of how promising this past week appears.

Don’t Care

0. Hot air

World Economic Forum

The world’s corporate, political, and cultural elite are descending on the Swiss mountain town of Davos this week for the World Economic Forum, now in its 45th iteration. The theme of this year’s conference is “The Fourth Industrial Revolution” – named after the title of a book by Klaus Schwab, the founder of the WEF – a reference to the new paradigm that advanced technologies are unleashing upon our apparently unsuspecting world. Among the major themes to be discussed this year: automation and its effects on labor in the 21st century, China and its groaning economic development, emerging markets and the need for greater foreign direct investment, and the European Union and its relationship with the United Kingdom. Heady stuff.

The Forum in Davos has always attracted a lot of media attention and this year’s conference is no exception. With many publications live-blogging the events and setting up shop in local luxury hotels for constant updates, the eyes of the world are trained on the small resort town. The trouble is that nothing of real importance will come out of this year’s forum, because nothing of significance ever comes out of Davos. Despite its best intentions to claim relevance and media attention, the World Economic Forum is merely a self-congratulatory meeting of the rich and powerful in yet another pristine corner of one of the world’s wealthiest countries. It’s nothing more than a chance for the uber-wealthy to get some face time with big name politicos (Joe Biden! David Cameron!) and celebrities (Leonardo DiCaprio!), for middle managers to clink champagne flutes with the chief executives of big time banks (Goldman! Deutsche Bank!), and for Nobel laureate economists to air their grievances about evil obstacles to globalization. For the privilege, those interested in schmoozing with the bigwigs have to shell out more than $50,000.

The media attention is understandable given the big names and serious issues, but do not be fooled by the notion that Davos matters. Let us not pretend it is anything more than a Cannes Film Festival for sleazy bankers and self-impressed bureaucrats. The issues do sound important, and the idea of a secluded conference for global policymakers to meet away from the glare of domestic politics is a good one. But the forum is not set up for real conversations or real policymaking. It is set up to be nothing more than a photo-op and a hang-out for the global elite. Does anyone really think that a bunch of bankers, hedge fund managers, economists, and glad-handing politicians flying in on 1,700 private jets are really going to solve global climate change? In the end, Davos is all just optics and hot air.

Daniel Sacks, Ryan McGinnis, Daniel Ruswick, Leah Downs, Alexi Stocker, and Will Kirkland contributed