The Week of May 14th, 2018
Care
1. More protests
A tragic day in the Middle East
A six-week Palestinian protest campaign in Gaza, known as the “March of Return,” reached a boiling point Monday when at least 60 Palestinian demonstrators were killed and 2,200 injured near the border separating Gaza and Israel. The casualties represented the largest death toll in a single day since the 2014 Gaza-Israeli war. A spokesman for the Hamas-run Health Ministry claimed that 50 of the 60 “martyrs” were members of Hamas, the authoritarian theocratic regime in charge of Gaza since 2005, while the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) identified 24 of the dead as “terrorists” belonging to Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
Originally set to take place on “Nakba Day,” the annual Palestinian day of commemoration for those displaced during the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, the protests were moved up to coincide with the opening of the US Embassy in Jerusalem. The surge in violent clashes apparently began after Hamas falsely announced over loudspeaker during midday prayers that “the fence had already been breached” and that Israeli soldiers were fleeing their posts. The majority of the nearly 35,000 protestors were unarmed and peaceful, but a number were manipulated by Hamas into unwittingly rushing the Israeli border fence under false pretenses in order to produce injuries and fatalities. Video evidence revealed demonstrators closest to the fence brandishing Molotov Cocktails, burning tires, shooting rocks at soldiers with slingshots, and occasionally wielding guns to shoot down Israeli drones dropping tear gas. Drones filled the sky, along with Palestinian kites carrying crude explosives.
A heated debate quickly emerged over the IDF’s use of live ammunition in response to protestors. Israel claims that the soldiers acted in accordance with protocol, warning the protestors first with airdropped leaflets and acting in self-defense against a credible threat to the border. Other parties, such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, contend that the use of live fire was excessive and disproportionate to the threat caused by demonstrators.
The demonstrations were driven by a number of factors: desperation, impoverishment, and propaganda. Conditions in Gaza have steadily worsened as a result of Hamas’ neglectful, extremist policies and the eleven-year Israeli blockade of Gaza, which heavily restricts the movement of people and goods between the territory and Israel. Palestinians were also mobilized in fury over the Trump Administration’s decision to move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Israel’s capital of Jerusalem, the eastern half of which resides in the Palestinian West Bank. Many were also driven by the false hope of reclaiming former Palestinian villages lost in the 1948 Nakba. As Hamas-led clerics told thousands of demonstrators, “We are heading to Jerusalem with millions of martyrs. We may die, but Palestine will live.”
2. Hitting the jackpot
The Supreme Court paves the way for legalized sports gambling
The United States Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Murphy v. NCAA against a law prohibiting sports gambling in the United States at the federal level. Now, states can legislate the legality of the industry. This law, championed by former congressman and basketball star Bill Bradley in 1992, was aimed at preserving the “integrity” of sports. On the opposite side of the debate, the state of New Jersey, led by former governor Chris Christie, argued the federal ban violated the 10th Amendment, which reserves powers not granted to the federal government for the states. This argument had purchase in the largely originalist Supreme Court, with the dissenting Justices Ginsberg and Sotomayor criticizing the scope of the ruling.
The ruling legalizes the $150 billion of illegal gambling that occurs every year in the United States, creating clear winners and losers. Advocates of the ruling hope legalization will strike a blow at illegal gambling syndicates, and through them organized crime in general, by moving the industry into public view and regulation. Some states are positioning themselves to quickly legalize and start issuing gambling permits, with New Jersey already promising companies a start date as early as June. Nevada, which was previously the sole exception to the federal ban, will most likely take an economic hit by losing a source of tourism. Sports leagues, especially the National Football League and Major League Baseball, argued strongly against the ruling, nominally out of a concern that legalization would lead to match-fixing scandals, but likely as a tactic to capture some of the new market’s revenue. The National Basketball Association, accepting the situation and moving to the next-best alternative, has called for a 1% “integrity fee” to be levied on all sports gambling and paid to the leagues running the sports in question to help offset costs associated with making sure matches aren’t fixed. Native American tribes, which reap $30 billion a year through their ability to circumvent federal regulations in their lands, are also watching the rising markets anxiously.
3. Baghdad’s new bedlam
Parliamentary elections in Iraq see no clear winner
Millions of Iraqis headed to the polls this past week to cast their ballot in the 2018 parliamentary elections. For the few in the United States and Europe who paid attention, the result was unsettling. A coalition led by Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr took the lion’s share of the seats, besting the ruling Islamic Dawa Party. The coalition, Alliance of Revolutionaries for Reform, known as Sairoon, purports to represent a wide cross-section of Iraqi society, from leftist groups and secularists to the conservative, urban, Shia majority. Despite Mr Sadr’s history of championing radical Shia causes, he has repeatedly claimed his alliance aims to address shortcomings in public services, fight against governmental corruption, and pay greater attention to the poor.
His bloc’s victory will complicate US-Iraqi relations to say the least, as Sadrist militias were responsible for the deaths of numerous American soldiers during the insurgency that took place in the wake of the 2003 invasion. Although Sairoon did not gain a majority of seats in parliament, it had a strong enough showing to deny the prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, the ability to form a new government. Mr Abadi was a largely pro-Western, moderate politician who focused on rooting out corruption. Growing dissatisfaction with government graft, however, has resulted in many voters creating odd bedfellows, uniting Islamists and secularists. Although Mr Sadr did not personally run for a seat in Parliament, he is now situated as kingmaker in Iraqi politics, as his bloc will likely decide who will be part of the coalition government. The strong showings of the second- and third-place finishers means questions remain, however, over Mr Sadr’s ability to form a government. While he claims he will pursue a new brand of nationalist and technocratic politics, his long career as a sectarian leader, agitating against both the Sunni and foreign powers, leaves queries to be answered. For a country that lives with a fresh memory of ISIS, the spectre of sectarian violence looms large.
4. A gabagool’s government
Italian populist parties join forces to form a government
In Italy, it appears increasingly likely that the populist Five-Star (M5S) and League parties are going to join forces to create a coalition government. While the parties hold divergent policy views, they are united in their commitment to Euroscepticism, restricting immigration, and deficit-spending policies. A leaked draft of their possible program called for both tax cuts and welfare spending that would lead to a deficit constituting 6% of current Italian GDP, piling onto the nation’s already titanic 130% debt-to-GDP ratio. Markets went into turmoil on news of the platform.
While the program made no reference to an exit from the Euro, a position both parties advocated for during the campaign, the populist government will nonetheless force reconsideration from those who hoped EU reform might stabilize the bloc. The rise of Euroscepticism is a dramatic shift for one of the most Europhillic countries leading up to the creation of the EU and the Euro. However, Italy’s economic performance since adopting the Euro in 2002 has been abysmal: its GDP per capita has grown by 38% whereas Germany’s has grown by 76%. As Italians have become frustrated with the lack of novel solutions from mainstream politics, populism has become more appealing.
Although the deal appears to be in its final stages, there remains some uncertainties, such as who will be prime minister, and how much the actual deal will resemble the leaked draft. However the deal turns out, the blow to EU confidence to have one of its founding members reject several of its key platforms is substantial.
5. Strange bedfellows
Donald Trump saves jobs...in China
President Donald Trump raised eyebrows and ruffled feathers this week when he announced via Twitter he was considering eliminating sanctions on Chinese telecom manufacturer ZTE. Mr Trump, who usually speaks of Chinese companies in nothing short of pugilistic terms, wrote “Too many jobs in China lost” as his rationale for the move. ZTE, a massive electronics manufacturer with a global footprint, came under heavy sanctions from the US Commerce Department for selling proprietary technology to Iran and North Korea, in violation of international sanctions, and for stealing billions of dollars in intellectual property from American firms. On Thursday the House Appropriations committee, which controls the federal government’s pursetrings, unanimously condemned the president’s move as a threat to national security and strengthened sanctions against ZTE in a legislative amendment.
Mr Trump claims to want a better deal for American workers in trade deals and to end “unfair” Chinese business practices. ZTE, a company that has engaged in a massive campaign of state-backed corporate espionage, would seem to be a natural target for his ire. Yet Mr Trump, at least temporarily wooed by promises from the regime in Beijing, is on the verge of blocking his own justice department from enforcing the very laws designed to deter such behavior. ZTE has taken a massive financial hit as a result of the sanctions. Keeping the pressure on until the company does an ethical volte-face is the best way to ensure that it, and its backers in the government, learn their lesson. Do business fairly, or don’t do it at all.
Don’t Care
0. Confirmation consternation
The CIA has its first woman director
On Friday the Senate confirmed Gina Haspel to be the new head of the Central Intelligence Agency. Ms Haspel replaces former director Mike Pompeo, whom President Trump appointed as America’s top diplomat in the wake of Rex Tillerson’s unceremonious departure. Though Ms Haspel has spent the entirety of her career--and served as deputy director of--the CIA under Mr Pompeo, her appointment surfaced questions about her involvement in the sometimes brutal US counter-terrorism regime that followed the attacks of September 11, 2001. For those concerned by Ms Haspel’s past, the most troubling line on her resume was her 2002 oversight of a secret prison in Thailand, where an al Qaeda suspect was waterboarded during her tenure.
In the end, Ms Haspel was confirmed by a 54 to 45 vote, buttressing her broad base of Republican support with six Democratic votes. Mark Warner, a Democratic senator from Virginia, where the agency is headquartered, voiced his support for Ms Haspel after a classified hearing in which he lead the interrogation of her record. The CIA itself, typically circumspect in publicly discussing the work of its operatives, has issued a series of univocal and clarion endorsements of Ms Haspel’s bid since her name was first floated last month.
Though concerns about her record are worthy of investigation, attempts to scuttle her nomination due to her actions in counter-terrorism efforts in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 (which she rightly maintains were legally sanctioned), are misguided. The idea that anyone wielding influence in the US national security apparatus on the heels of 9/11 could have maintained an unblemished record is risible; so too is the idea that none of these people are qualified to lead the agencies they worked for at that time. With the uniform backing of the agency she has been asked to lead, does Ms Haspel not qualify as precisely the sort of career woman bulwark against Trumpian laymanism for which so many have called?
Daniel Sacks, Jose Trejos, Avi Dravid, Jason Frankel, Edmund Bannister, and Max Rowe contributed to this report.