The Week of February 15th, 2016

Care

1. Fruit from the poisonous tree

Apple-FBI dispute

Apple has rejected a judge’s order to create a software “backdoor” for the iPhone that would allow federal investigative authorities to gain access to the phone of Syed Farook, one of two individuals suspected of carrying out the San Bernardino terrorist attacks. The court has invoked the All Writs Act of 1789 in an attempt to coerce Apple into building a version of their operating system with certain security features turned off. Currently, the iPhone’s operating system forces a delay between attempts to open the phone with a passcode and wipes all the data on the phone after the 10th failed attempt. The judge has ordered Apple to build a version of the software with these features removed, which could then be loaded onto the phone. This would allow the FBI to try every possible passcode combination in quick succession to open the phone.

The FBI has claimed that this version of the software would only be used once. However, Apple expressed concerns in a public letter that such a move could set a bad precedent, and that, if the software were to find its way into the wrong hands, cybercriminals could gain access to any iPhone with trivial ease. If Apple were to acquiesce to the US government’s demands, it would also create additional expectations in the eyes of other nations such as Russia and China, setting a dangerous new precedent. Apple’s refusal echoes a strong anti-government sentiment throughout Silicon Valley. Sundar Pichai, CEO of archival Google, issued a series of tweets criticizing the government’s orders shortly after Apple’s own statement. The companies have a right to be worried. Forced backdoors compromise the security of users’ devices and undermine decades of cryptographic research responsible for protecting the privacy of phone users worldwide.

2. Scraping the bottom of the barrel

Global oil prices

Four members of the oil cartel OPEC – Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezuela – agreed on Wednesday to cap oil production at January levels in an attempt to halt the slide in crude oil prices that has greatly strained the economies of many oil-producing nations. The two most important members of this pact are Saudi Arabia and Russia, who are the first and second largest producers in the world, respectively. For months, OPEC’s decision to ramp up oil production in the face of falling prices puzzled analysts; one explanation was that OPEC was attempting to price American shale oil producers out of the market. That has worked to an extent, as the pace of new drilling in the United States has collapsed. Unfortunately for nations whose state finances depend mostly on exporting oil, the price has continued to slide, bottoming out around $30 a barrel. Those countries may have finally hit their breaking point: Venezuela recently announced a 6200% increase in the price of gas for its citizens (see below) while Saudi Arabia’s youth are growing increasingly worried about their job prospects in the absence of the ever-dependable oil revenues evaporating.

The price of oil rose upon news of the cap before falling again upon news of complications in Iraq and Iran. Two founding members of the oil cartel, Iraq and Iran, are eager to expand their share of the market. Iran has recently regained access to world oil markets following the successful implementation of the first stage of the nuclear disarmament deal. Access to international oil markets was seen as a key benefit for Iran in agreeing to the disarmament deal. Iraq has continued to ramp up oil production as part of its postwar rebuilding effort, though some of its oil facilities have been hampered by security troubles. A number of analysts believe Saudi Arabia and Russia do not hold enough of a share in this increase in oil production to significantly alter oil prices worldwide. It looks like Saudi Arabian youth may be left fretting a while longer.

3. Too little, too late

Venezuelan oil prices

Sometimes the only way to go is up. Venezuela prevented domestic consumer oil prices from rising for the past 20 years. Now, President Nicolás Maduro is set to reverse that trend. Petroleum prices will rise by 6000%, although it will still be the world’s cheapest oil. Mr. Maduro is reversing course in response to the Venezuelan government’s dire financial straits. The global fall in oil prices means that Venezuela’s foreign currency reserves are drying up, leaving the country more unable to pay off debt to bondholders.

Previously, the government had attempted to deal with the issue through price controls and import cuts. Those methods have caused shortages of goods such as food and still left Venezuela needing to make up $30 billion in repayment. Oil is Venezuela’s only significant export. Low oil prices mean that revenues from exports for this year would be 77% lower than those of 2012. Even Mr. Maduro’s higher oil prices are so low that Venezuela’s woes are unlikely to be solved with his latest gambit. Default is likely.

Mr. Maduro has taken other measures to help Venezuela’s general economic situation. The minimum wage is set to rise by 20%, and the bolívar will undergo a large devaluation. This aims to boost oil revenues by giving the government more bolívares per dollar of oil sales. The devaluation and the fuel price hike were recommended by analysts, but many believe they do not go far enough. While these latest moves suggest that Mr. Maduro has turned in a more pragmatic direction, they are probably not enough to prevent the economy from further sinking.

4. A successful succession

Haitian presidential crisis

The Haitian National Assembly elected Jocelerme Privert on February 14th as the nation’s interim president, offering a temporary solution to Haiti’s political crisis. Haiti was without a president for one week, following former Haitian president Michel Martelly’s departure from office. Mr. Martelly left office without a successor, threatening to plunge Haiti into an even deeper political crisis, had it not been for a deal struck between Mr. Martelly and leaders of the National Assembly on February 6th.

The crisis began in October 2015 following the first round of voting in the presidential elections. Mr. Martelly’s chosen successor, Jovenel Moïse, reportedly won the first round, but opposition parties cried foul, claiming election fraud and ballot manipulation. The second round of voting was scheduled to take place on January 24th, but protests led to a postponement of the election. Mr. Martelly left office on February 7th, as mandated by the Haitian constitution, leaving the presidency vacant.

Before leaving office, Mr. Martelly made a last-minute agreement with leaders of the National Assembly, granting them the power to form an interim government. Mr. Privert is limited to a term of 120 days, which will likely not be served in full. The second round of elections is scheduled for April 24th, and the newly elected president will take office three weeks later.

Mr. Martelly’s departure from the presidency marks a significant political development for Haiti, a country with a long history of dictatorship. Although halting, the transition to Mr. Privert’s government has been peaceful. International observers are confident that the April 24th elections will go off without a hitch, paving the way for a new Haitian president.

5. Into the fire

Buenos Aires protests

On Wednesday morning, a group of Kirchneristas, so called for their support of the Kirchner family and their leftist politics, managed to greatly disrupt the capital city of Buenos Aires by blocking approximately 200 points around the country, including many of the major roads in and out of the city. The government of President Mauricio Macri, who defeated Kirchnerista Daniel Scioli in 2015, found itself unprepared but quickly developed a protocol to deal with such crises. It allows for protesters to be removed by force as a last resort.

The apparent justification for the demonstrations was the detention of Milagro Sala by the government. Ms. Sala, a well-known social leader, was responsible for the construction of low-income neighborhoods in the poorest areas of Jujuy, a relatively undeveloped province, under the government of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. When Ms. Kirchner’s party lost power after the election of Mr. Macri, Ms. Sala lost the support and funding of the government. Gerardo Morales, the recently elected governor of Jujuy and an ally of Mr. Macri, cut government spending to programs such as Ms. Sala’s. In response, Ms. Sala organized a protest against the new government. The standoff concluded after 32 days when Ms. Sala was detained, imprisoned, and accused by Mr. Morales in January of “incitement to violence and turmoil.” Additionally, the government of Jujuy will prosecute her for stealing 29 million pesos (approximately $2 million) from the government through her social programs.

Ms. Sala remains imprisoned, but with recent pressure by the pope and Amnesty International, Mr. Macri has found it increasingly difficult to manage the situation. As the month of March arrives his approval remains astoundingly high at 71%, but Mr. Macri has much on his plate. Between Ms. Sala’s imprisonment, increases in the price of electricity, and Argentina’s high rates of inflation, time will tell if his eyes were bigger than his stomach.

Don’t Care

0. Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing

The Grammys

At this year’s Grammy Awards a Kendrick Lamar album was, for the second time in three years, snubbed by the awards show in favor of a commercial album by a much more commercial (and white) artist. Also for the second time in three years, the awards show’s decision drew ire from commentators, who were taken aback at the Grammy committee’s inability to discern artistic quality. Was anyone actually surprised by the Grammy decision? And why should we care what the Grammys have to say in the first place?

A review of past Album of the Year winners paints a startlingly bleak portrait of American musical history, and one quite different from what many may remember. A rock-and-roll act won only once during the 1960s, Bob Dylan didn’t win until 1998, and hip-hop acts have only won twice. The Grammys, perhaps by virtue of being chosen by a group of preselected industry elites, have always been at some distance from important trends in music. With the rise of the internet and the increased possibility of independent music distribution, it appears that the distance between the Grammys and the important trends in music will only continue to grow. In modern music, the Grammy awards hardly signify anything more than a celebration of mass-appeal commercialism or decade-too-late conservative tastes.

Daniel Ruswick, David Gernon, Wooyoung Lee, Alexi Stocker, Alex Velasco, and Max Rowe contributed