The Week of February 19th, 2018
Care
1. Mulled over
More indictments from Robert Mueller’s office
Special Counsel Robert Mueller charged 13 Russian individuals with meddling in the 2016 presidential election. The indictments allege that Russian actors sought to disrupt the democratic process by promoting discord in the United States. Russian attempts to create widespread distrust and cynicism in the United States are nothing new, but only recently has it begun using social media platforms to do so. Some have rightfully pointed out that the foreign adversary’s ad spending on social platforms added up to fractions of what either Mr Trump or Hillary Clinton’s campaigns spent. The influence Russia exerted through fake profiles and bot farms on platforms like Twitter, however, remains to be quantified.
This series of indictments confirms that the Russia investigation is nowhere close to its conclusion. What remains up for debate is how things will pan out for Donald Trump. Mr Trump himself no longer denies Russian meddling in the election, but rather claims they did not do so with his knowledge or on his behalf. Donald Trump Jr’s meeting with a Russian lawyer, as well as additional findings that may surface in the wake of new charges against former Trump campaign officials Paul Manafort and Rick Gates, may suggest otherwise. This topic remains a contentious one, especially following recent comments by Bernie Sanders blaming the Clinton campaign for not directly addressing the Russian efforts. While no one yet knows if the White House will survive the Mueller investigation, it is a safe bet the issue will dominate headlines and elections for the foreseeable future.
2. American tragedy redux
Another school shooting in America
On Wednesday, a gunman entered Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School and killed 17 people, making this the second-deadliest shooting at a US public school. The shooter was a 19-year-old former student of the Florida school who was armed with an AR-15 rifle which is colloquially considered as an "assault weapon.” People of the school and community were familiar with the gunman and his turbulent past. His apparently troubled high school years had led to expulsion from the school. Prior to his expulsion, he was not allowed to wear a backpack to school because of threats he made against other students. His online presence focused on guns and rants against other races.
It’s difficult to fathom that this is an all-too-common tragedy in America. In the wake of such a tragedy, it’s important to mourn and honor those whose lives were lost. For many, after the grief comes the work, and students across the nation seem tired of the “normalcy” of mass shootings. Most mass shootings, unbelievably, fall from the headlines after a few days; not Parkland, for now. Some are cautiously optimistic that legislation could be borne out of this tragedy. Rick Scott, the governor of Florida, has proposed a statute to raise the minimum age of ownership to 21, though it remains to be seen how dedicated to passing such proposals the Florida GOP truly is. Just Tuesday, the Florida state House rejected a ban on semiautomatic guns and large capacity magazines, a major loss for the Parkland survivors-turned-advocates, many of whom were in attendance for the vote in Tallahassee.
Amid the grief, one bright spot is the student activism that began nearly immediately following the shooting. Students across the nation have scheduled walk-outs to show solidarity with the survivors-turned-activists protesting the country’s lax gun laws. In a CNN town hall on Wednesday, students from Marjory Stoneman spoke earnestly to Marco Rubio, Florida’s junior senator about legislating change.
Still, political lines create divides and stir up contentious debates about the future of gun laws. The issue for one side is mental health, while on the other side it’s a matter of gun control. Politicians on both sides question why a 19-year-old was able to purchase such a high-powered weapon. Mr Rubio said he now supports raising the minimum age to 21 to purchase a rifle.
Current students are unique in American history, having felt the devastation of school shootings many times over. One of Washington’s favorite mantras is Congress will never act on gun legislation. This time may be different.
3. Outpope the Pope
China and the Vatican strike a deal
In recent days, news media outlets have reported that Pope Francis' Vatican and China were close to reaching a deal regarding the Catholic Church's presence in the officially atheist country. Since the ascendancy of Mao Zedong's party in 1949, Catholicism has been persecuted by the Communist Party as a subversive element. In 1957, the Communist Party created the Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association (CPCA) as a state-controlled pseudo-church, designed to replace the official Roman Catholic hierarchy in the nation. Over the last course of the last six decades, six popes have rejected the CPCA and have continued to ordain 'underground' bishops to take care of Catholic faithful in China and spread the gospel across the world's most populous nation.
These 'underground bishops', many of whom have long been imprisoned and otherwise persecuted by the Chinese government, are the main issue at stake in the proposed agreement. According to reports, the Vatican is asking several of its 'underground bishops' to step aside from their positions in favor of state-approved (and previously excommunicated) 'bishops' in exchange for normalizing relations between the Holy See and China. The move has provoked backlash and condemnation: retired Chinese Cardinal Joseph Zen decried the move, arguing that it would subject the Catholic Church in China to state control, depicting the move as tantamount to "kneeling down" to the country’s communist leadership. Even non-Catholics saw Pope Francis' move as thoroughly misguided. Professor Will Inboden, a State Department veteran, described the decision as a "surrender" that would break with a thousand-year-long Catholic tradition that only bishops appointed by ecclesiastical authority (and not by a secular government) were legitimate. An open letter to the Pope from prominent Chinese Catholics argued that the decision "would not only fail to guarantee the limited freedom desired by the church, but also … deal a blow to the church’s moral power". However, some defended the move by claiming it would help bridge the long-standing gap between China's ruling class and the Vatican.
It remains to be seen if the plan laid out in the deal will be implemented or if it will fall through due to the intense opposition from Catholic circles. Regardless, it represents a significant break with the Catholic tradition of resisting governmental intrusion in church affairs, adopting an approach where the church is willing to kowtow to civil authorities if doing so may be in its best interests. If they continue to pursue such a strategy, the church would do well to remember the biblical warning that "no man can serve two masters" (Matthew 6:24).
4. The balance of power
Ethiopia may be in for a new governing coalition
On February 15, Hailemariam Desalegn, Ethiopia’s prime minister, formally resigned his position following recent political turmoil. The following day, the government announced a state of emergency for “safeguarding the constitutional order”, according to the state-owned Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation. The ongoing chaos is a sign the four-party ruling coalition that has been in charge since 1991 is losing its grip on power.
After two years of a tumultuous political climate, matters escalated in January when the government announced that it planned to pardon many of the thousands of political prisoners detained in the country (Ethiopia is ranked 150th in freedom of information). While one might expect this move to mollify critics, the famed political scientist Alexis De Tocqueville points out that “the most critical moment for bad government is the one which witnesses their first steps toward reform”. True to the Tocquevillian dictum, civil unrest ensued when the public perceived deliberate delays and procrastinations in this process.
While Mr Desalegn resignation was perceived as imminent, it was nonetheless surprisingly abrupt, causing the ruling coalition to splinter as they scramble to find a successor. Tensions within the coalition are overlaid with the nation’s ethnic schisms as many expect the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front to lose power to the Oromo People’s Democratic Organisation, led by the popular Lemma Megersa. Tigrayans have been able to lead the coalition since 1991 despite making up only 6% of the population, while the Oromo are the largest ethnic group in the east African country.
Although Ethiopia is one of the poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa, its economy was the fastest growing in the world in 2017. Economic growth at this pace brings rapid change to society as people migrate from rural to metropolitan areas such as Addis Ababa, the capital. The new government should look to not only reverse the ethnic and political problems that have plagued the country, but adapt with its changing society to address the social issues caused by a high-growth, emerging-market economy.
5. Money doesn’t grow on trees
Venezuela launches its oil-based cryptocurrency
Cryptocurrency has been a financial rollercoaster over the past few years, as bitcoin has skyrocketed from a meagre $2 per coin to over $20,000, before crashing to under $10,000 in the last month. The asset class has garnered a reputation among investors as something that may completely unexpectedly and unreasonably skyrocket in price, to the point that investors eager to “get in early” have made even the prices of joke-currencies such as “Dogecoin” incredibly valuable.
Wherever there is easy money to be made with financial gimmicks, certain players are always going to follow, and so the Venezuelan government decided to launch a cryptocurrency this week. The ‘Petro’, as it is called, has its price based on oil, Venezuela’s main export and only meaningful economic output. In its characteristic incompetence, however, the Venezuelan government bungled crucial aspects of the new currency. The main document describing the currency was a mere table of contents with no contents attached, so crucial details are yet unknown. For example, the government has published contradictory accounts as to whether the Petro is based off of Ethereum, a major cryptocurrency known for low transaction costs, or NEM, which infamously had a major security failure last year. The government has also gone back and forth in describing whether or not the currency is backed by Venezuela’s oil reserves, which is particularly important given the country’s record of hyperinflation when put in charge of fiat currency. Depressingly, perhaps the least important feature about the currency is that the democratically-elected National Assembly considers it illegal, as elected officials are powerless in the increasingly repressive dictatorship.
According to the Venezuelan government, $735 million was raised in the initial offering for this currency, which is being traded as of this week. Hopefully, investors eager to catch the next Dogecoin will fare better than the Venezuelans trading hundreds of thousands of Bolívares in the black market for single dollars.
Don’t Care
0. Moving the deckchairs
Peter Thiel relocates to Los Angeles
Last week, The Wall Street Journal published an outré story, with three bylines no less, announcing Peter Thiel, the outspoken tech investor, was moving to Los Angeles from Silicon Valley. The story emphasized the discomfort Mr Thiel, a Trump-backer, feels in liberal Silicon Valley, where much of America’s tech innovation is centered. Mr Thiel, who co-founded the payments processing platform PayPal along with several other notable tech figures, is also considering stepping down from the board of social media giant Facebook, after disagreements arose with another member over Mr Thiel’s support for Donald Trump.
The newsworthiness of this story is unclear: Mr Thiel is notoriously private. However, for a Rupert Murdoch-backed newspaper, the impetus is more clear. Mr Murdoch’s paper routinely publishes editorials lamenting the rise of political correctness in America, blaming college students and safe spaces for irrevocable damage done to discourse. This stance impeccably comports with the narrative of Mr Thiel’s big move. Indeed, three days later, the Journal published a story quoting several other tech workers in Silicon Valley who have left or plan to leave the area because of resistance to different social values and ideologies. Among the many points Mr Thiel and others miss is that Silicon Valley has always been exclusionary: tech firms, and the venture capital companies that fund them, have a well-documented poor history of hiring women and minorities. Now Mr Thiel is experiencing the other side.
What is further unclear is if Mr Thiel will feel much more welcome in Los Angeles, whose county voted in favor of Hillary Clinton by a margin of 2.5 million to about 750,000. This correspondent sincerely hopes so.
Philip Straus, Lauren Velasco, Dominic Bayer, Jason Frankel, Jose Trejos, and David Gernon contributed to this report.